Flexible Packaging
In its 2025-2026 annual report, the German Flexible Packaging Association (IPV) describes a market for flexible packaging that is developing in a similarly difficult way to the market as a whole. "The consistently very weak economy led to declines once again. Overall, according to our own estimates, turnover in the sector has fallen by 0.7 per cent to around €2.045 billion," says the IPV.
Causes and Drivers
For many sectors and segments with strong purchasing power, 2025 was a year of stagnation or decline. While areas such as pharmaceuticals, cosmetics and e-commerce were able to record growth, food, beverages, chemicals and DIY tended to show stagnation or decline. Across the board, consumer restraint, price pressure and structural challenges all made themselves felt. Accordingly, when presenting its figures, the GADV also stated that the development pointed to a continued challenging market environment for packaging manufacturers.
The IPV points out that personnel costs represent the second-largest cost block after material costs. "Although renewed massive wage increases failed to materialise because of the ailing economy, personnel costs remain at a critically high level relative to revenues within a weak economy," says the IPV.
Both the GADV and the IPV also point to the market-shaping influence of ongoing regulations such as the PPWR or the VerpackDG (German Packaging Act). The IPV sees these as the cause "of unusual wave movements in orders from customer markets, with higher unit costs as a consequence".
Looking at the fall in production volumes, the ongoing efficiency gains resulting from targeted packaging material savings (lightweighting) are likely to be a factor too (albeit a comparatively minor one). Rising inflation is also likely to be among the reasons for the gap between falling production volume and the less sharply falling production value.
Sectors and Segments
According to figures from Destatis, retail turnover rose by +3.8 per cent in 2025, significantly above the 2024 level (+2.5 per cent). Adjusted for prices, an increase of +2.7 per cent remained, compared with +1.1 per cent in 2024. Retailers of food, beverages and tobacco products were able to increase their turnover in 2025 by +3.4 per cent in nominal terms (previous year +2.9 per cent). In real terms, however, turnover rose by just +1.1 per cent (2024 +0.7 per cent).
Internet and mail-order retail once again proved to be a clear growth driver, with an increase of +10.0 per cent (+10.1 per cent in real terms).
According to figures from the German Chemical Industry Association (VCI), the medical and chemical-pharmaceutical industry had to report turnover falling by another 1 per cent in 2025 after an already weak 2024. Production also fell slightly, by -0.5 per cent. By contrast, pharmacies and cosmetic, pharmaceutical and medical products were able to increase their turnover significantly, by +5.5 per cent in nominal terms (+3.5 per cent in real terms), according to figures in the 2025 IPV annual report.
The market for textiles, clothing and leather goods, on the other hand, had to record slight losses once again, of 0.3 per cent (-0.8 per cent in real terms), according to the IPV.
Forecasts for 2026 and Beyond
In the view of the GADV associations, considerable uncertainty persists across all packaging materials regarding the interpretation and application of the new regulations, such as the PPWR or the VerpackDG. The IPV likewise speaks of a continued subdued outlook for 2026. "According to internal estimates, sales in the first half of the year remained stable at a low level," says the IPV annual report.
For the German plastic packaging and film industry, a recent economic survey by the IK German Association for Plastics Packaging and Films among 112 manufacturers shows that the economic mood is brightening somewhat. According to the IK, sales expectations in particular are improving for the fourth quarter of 2026, while earnings and cost pressure remain high and the export business is strained.
According to the association Die Papierindustrie, the situation for paper-based packaging in the first half of 2026 has not improved compared with the same period last year. According to association figures, the production volume of the German paper and pulp industry as a whole fell by -1.4 per cent to 9.4 million tonnes compared with the first half of 2025, with turnover down by -7.1 per cent to €6.9 billion. At 6.4 million tonnes, the paper, cardboard and paperboard for packaging purposes segment remained the largest division by volume and accounted for more than 67 per cent of total production. Production showed no change compared with the same period last year. For corrugated board, the Association of the Corrugated Board Industry (VDW) takes a cautious view of the prospects for 2026 based on the current global political situation. The corrugated board industry already sees itself as severely affected by soaring energy prices, production and logistics costs as well as new uncertainties on the market. The risk of a new wave of costs for raw materials cannot be dismissed either. Label papers occupy a special position. According to the EUWID market report, the market dynamics of the two previous quarters continued here in the third quarter of 2026 as well. Manufacturers operating in the German market report consistently very good capacity utilisation.
In the container glass sector, sales in Germany fell by -7.8 per cent to around 1.82 million tonnes in the first half of 2026 compared with the same period last year, according to the Aktionsforum Glasverpackung. Sales abroad are declining as well. In the food and pharmaceuticals/cosmetics segments, the stable figures of the first quarter have turned into a decline of 5.9 per cent. According to BV Glas, beverage bottles recorded a drop of -8.7 per cent compared with the first half of 2025, with all sub-segments declining. The upcoming tax increase on spirits is likely to put additional strain on the situation in 2027.
For aluminium packaging, a EUWID market report shows unabated strong demand for sleek cans in the third quarter of 2026, along with very good capacity utilisation for aerosol cans, which comes mainly from the personal care segment. For tubes, the picture is more mixed. The sector is concerned about "the still high price level for aluminium as well as the numerous cost increases. The latter are likely to be reflected in the prices for cans and tubes next year," according to the market report.
According to EUWID, the majority of manufacturers of steel sheet packaging operating on the German market report a weakening of demand in the course of the second quarter or, at the latest, the third quarter of 2026. For tinplate, can manufacturers speak of higher costs – particularly due to sharply increased prices for coatings, printing inks, sealing compounds and freight – which can only be passed on from 2027.
For pallets, according to the EUWID market report, an "autumn upturn expected by manufacturers for September/October 2026 has largely failed to materialise despite the recent increases in German export business or the livelier business activity on the part of the German chemical industry".
Author: Christian Nink, Freelance Journalist