Europe’s Packaging Market Between Recovery and Cost Pressures

The European packaging market is navigating a tentative recovery alongside continuing pressure to adapt. Demand showed signs of stabilising at the beginning of 2026, although growth prospects varied considerably across countries and product categories. High costs, uncertain supply chains and increasing sustainability requirements are shaping decisions by brand owners and packaging suppliers. Material use also reflects the market’s diversity: paper, plastic, glass and metal play different roles depending on the product, application and national consumption habits.

A survey conducted in December 2025 and January 2026 among around 400 brand owners in Germany, France, the United Kingdom and Spain found comparatively positive demand expectations for cosmetics and personal care, beverages and healthcare products. Weak consumer spending and overcapacity constrained further growth. In the “European Brand Owner Packaging Survey 2026”, analysts at L.E.K. Consulting write: “Growth is returning, albeit at a moderate pace. Whether it will accelerate sustainably remains difficult to predict.”

The growing importance of private labels could shift demand towards segments with different packaging specifications and tighter cost requirements. Brand owners are responding to rising packaging costs by optimising designs, switching materials and broadening their supplier base, as further cost increases become increasingly difficult to pass on to retailers and consumers.

Regional sourcing offers additional growth potential. According to the survey, European brand owners are increasingly sourcing their packaging from within Europe to improve supply security, control costs and respond more quickly to changing requirements.

Since the survey, the war in the Middle East and severe restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have created additional supply chain risks. US tariff policy is also influencing sourcing decisions.

Tariffs have a greater impact on packaging demand for healthcare products and consumer electronics than in the predominantly locally supplied beverage industry. As the authors explain: “The effects of tariffs cannot be assessed solely at brand or country level.” The extent to which companies are affected also depends on individual products, materials and supplier locations.

Companies are responding by diversifying their supplier base, sourcing more within their sales markets, renegotiating contracts and reducing material use.

L.E.K. expects managing tariff risks to become an integral part of packaging strategy. According to the analysis, competitiveness will increasingly depend on how flexibly companies design their packaging and supplier networks before disruptions occur.

Tariff Policy Creates Uncertainty

Alongside tariff risks, sustainability requirements are shaping packaging development. L.E.K. believes these are increasingly becoming a basic requirement in the European market.

Brand owners are increasingly incorporating environmental objectives into packaging design, sourcing and functionality. L.E.K. sees opportunities for suppliers able to provide recyclable packaging at scale while ensuring product protection and cost efficiency. However, material changes involve trade-offs: in certain applications, mono-material structures can entail higher costs or offer lower barrier performance. Economic barriers remain substantial. For example, 41 percent of respondents identify difficulties absorbing or passing on higher packaging costs as the main obstacle to the wider use of sustainable packaging.

L.E.K. sees future opportunities for competitive advantage in reliable access to recycled and alternative materials, traceable supply chains and practical improvements to packaging design.

Europe’s Packaging Market in a Global Context

Through supply chains and trade relationships, Europe’s packaging industry forms part of a global market led by Asia. According to estimates by market research company Smithers, packaging sales in Asia reached around US$470 billion in 2023, compared with US$270 billion in North America and US$234 billion in Western Europe. Additional data from Euromonitor International, published by PMMI in its 2025 Guide to Global Markets, show that around 722.1 billion packaging units were sold through retail channels in Western Europe in 2024. The corresponding figures were 575.7 billion units in North America and 754.4 billion in China. These figures relate to packaging for retail products and therefore do not cover all packaging used across the economy.

Consumer Goods Offer Insights into the Material Mix

The 2026 report Estimating packaging placed on the market at national level, published by the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre (JRC), provides a more detailed picture of packaging for selected consumer goods in Europe. The study’s underlying model covers selected foods and beverages, household cleaning and care products, cosmetics and personal care products, and pet food in 19 EU member states. According to the report, these countries together represent more than 97 per cent of the EU population.

Although the geographical coverage is extensive, the range of products covered is limited. Several fresh food categories are excluded, as is tertiary packaging used for transport, storage and distribution. The results therefore describe part of the consumer goods packaging market rather than total packaging use in Europe. For alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverages, the model includes out-of-home consumption as well as retail sales.

Within this scope, the JRC estimates that a total of 42.8 million tonnes of packaging were placed on the market in 2024. Of this, glass-based packaging accounted for 32.3 million tonnes, plastic for 5.9 million tonnes, metal for 2.3 million tonnes and paper-based packaging for 2.1 million tonnes. The latter also includes beverage cartons and other paper-based composite packaging. The separately reported mixed-material category accounted for around 0.1 million tonnes.

The high proportion of glass in this model reflects both the material’s weight and the importance of beverages within the selected product categories. Beer and wine account for the largest quantities of glass packaging. For PET, the main contributors are bottled water and carbonated soft drinks. Milk accounts for the largest share of beverage carton tonnage.

The estimates also include reusable packaging. Some containers, particularly refillable glass bottles, remain in circulation and do not become waste in the year of the respective sale. This further limits direct comparability with Eurostat’s annual waste figures.

Plastic Packaging Reflects National Consumption Habits

Across the consumer goods categories examined by the JRC, plastic packaging amounted to just under 14 kilograms per capita in 2024. The figures ranged from 8.0 kilograms in Sweden to 15.6 kilograms in Germany. Bottled water alone accounted for 6 per cent of the plastic packaging covered by the model in Sweden, compared with 46 per cent in Italy.

Between 2011 and 2025, the quantity of plastic packaging used for the products and countries covered increased by around 11 percent. PET was the main driver of this growth. In food and beverage packaging, PET was the most widely used plastic by weight in most countries, while polypropylene served a broader range of food applications. For household cleaning and care products, cosmetics and personal care products, and pet food, HDPE and PET together accounted for more than 75 per cent of plastic packaging in every country examined.

Additional Insights from Waste Statistics

The size and composition of the European packaging market depend on what is being measured.

Packaging manufactured, packaging sold with products and packaging waste represent different stages of the value chain. They provide complementary perspectives on material use but do not form a single, consistent market balance.

Eurostat’s waste statistics provide an EU-wide starting point. In 2023, the EU generated 79.7 million tonnes of packaging waste. Paper and cardboard accounted for 40.4 percent of the total by weight, followed by plastic at 19.8 percent, glass at 18.8 per cent, wood at 15.8 percent and metal at 4.9 percent. This equated to 177.8 kilograms per capita, down 8.7 kilograms from 2022 but still 21.2 kilograms above the 2013 level. There were considerable differences between countries. Ireland recorded 223.1 kilograms per capita, Italy 219.5 kilograms and Germany 215.2 kilograms.