Stable Volume, Dynamic Transformation: The European Packaging Market

The European packaging market is under pressure – yet continues to grow. While regulation, rising costs and sustainability expectations are placing increasing demands on the industry, demand from key application areas such as food and beverages, personal care, pharmaceuticals and logistics remains strong. Against this backdrop, Consegic Business Intelligence estimates the market volume at around USD 241 billion in 2024, with growth expected to reach approximately USD 340 billion by 2032. The underlying mid-single-digit growth rate shows that the industry is not facing decline, but rather a phase of profound transformation.

From a materials perspective, plastics continue to dominate the European packaging market. They remain indispensable in terms of barrier performance, durability and cost efficiency. Paper and board form the second major pillar of the market: efficient recycling systems, regulatory support and high consumer acceptance secure their strong position across primary, secondary and transport packaging. Glass packaging plays a particularly important role in the food and beverage sector, where product protection and premium perception are key. Metal packaging, especially aluminium and steel, maintains a stable position in cans, closures and rigid packaging formats, benefiting from robustness and well-established recycling streams. Other materials remain niche solutions with comparatively small market shares.

Growth is spread across all major material groups, but each faces specific challenges as sustainability requirements continue to intensify.

Consumer Packaging: A Mature Market in Transition

Europe is one of the world’s largest and most mature consumer packaging markets. It accounts for the majority of packaging demand and is supported by stable needs in food and beverages, personal care, household products and e-commerce. According to Mordor Intelligence, the market volume is expected to reach around USD 175 billion in 2025 and to continue growing moderately in the coming years. However, this growth is driven less by rising volumes than by structural change – fuelled by new regulatory requirements, increasing sustainability demands and shifts in materials and packaging formats.

Overall, the European consumer packaging market is characterised by continuous adaptation rather than abrupt disruption. Brand owners and packaging manufacturers operate in a demanding balancing act: maintaining functionality and cost efficiency while responding to tighter EU regulations and rising sustainability expectations. In this environment, consumer attitudes toward packaging are gaining importance, but remain one factor among several, not the sole driver of market development.

Consumers Value Sustainability – But Not at Any Price

Sustainability has become a fixed expectation among European consumers, but it rarely determines purchasing decisions. A 2025 McKinsey consumer survey shows that price, quality and functionality continue to dominate buying behaviour, while environmental aspects play a secondary role. Ongoing economic pressure and inflation have further increased price sensitivity across Europe.

When it comes to packaging, functionality clearly comes first. Consumers prioritise food safety, product protection and shelf life over environmental attributes. Sustainability only becomes relevant once these basic requirements are met – highlighting the challenge for the packaging industry to deliver greener solutions without compromising performance or affordability.

Among sustainability features, recyclability stands out as the most important criterion in all surveyed European countries. Reusability and the use of recycled content also resonate with consumers, while concepts such as bio-based materials or lightweighting are less tangible and therefore less influential in purchasing decisions. Circularity – not abstract sustainability claims – is what consumers understand and value most.

Material perceptions vary regionally. Paper, board and glass are widely regarded as sustainable, while plastics continue to face scepticism. In countries with well-functioning collection and recycling systems, such as Germany or Sweden, PET packaging is viewed more positively, underlining the importance of infrastructure in shaping consumer perceptions.

At the same time, consumers clearly expect companies – not individuals – to take responsibility for sustainable packaging. Willingness to pay a premium exists, but has declined in recent years. For the EU packaging market, this means that consumer demand alone will not drive transformation. Regulation, innovation and system-level solutions remain the key levers.

Recycling performance varies widely across EU member states. Belgium topped the ranking in 2023, recycling 79.7% of its packaging waste, well above the EU’s 2030 target of 70% under the Packaging Waste Directive. It was followed by the Netherlands (75.8%), Italy (75.6%), Czechia (74.8%), Slovenia (73.6%), Slovakia (71.9%) and Spain (70.5%). A further 13 countries were approaching the target with recycling rates above 60%. Particularly noteworthy are Cyprus (2022 data), Germany, France, Estonia and Sweden, all reporting rates between 68.5% and 69.5%.

A key success factor in Belgium is its long-established pay-as-you-throw system, which links waste fees to the volume of residual waste generated.

At the lower end of the scale were Romania (37.3%), Hungary (42.8%), Malta (44.4%) and Greece (48.0%), pointing to persistent gaps in infrastructure and implementation, often linked to lower levels of economic development. Similar disparities are evident in efforts to reduce plastic carrier bags: while Belgium averaged just four bags per person in 2023, Latvia exceeded 200.

European Plastic Recycling Under Pressure

While many European countries have successfully increased recycling rates for plastic packaging, recent developments suggest that these efforts may be reaching new limits. Low prices for virgin plastics, high energy and operating costs, and insufficient demand for recyclates have severely weakened the competitiveness of the recycling sector. In many cases, the cost of producing recyclates exceeds that of virgin material, prompting manufacturers to revert to cheaper primary plastics – including imports that often enter the EU under limited controls. This has resulted in declining revenues, insolvencies and the closure of recycling capacities; forecasts suggest that almost one million tonnes of annual capacity could be lost by the end of 2025. At the same time, market-based incentives and clear political frameworks for the use of recyclates remain lacking, while binding recycled-content quotas under the EU Packaging and Packaging Waste Regulation (PPWR) will not take effect until 2030.

Conclusion: Transformation Under Real-World Conditions

The European packaging market remains stable in volume but under significant pressure to adapt. Growth is increasingly driven by regulatory adjustment, material optimisation and new business models rather than rising volumes. At the same time, developments in recycling – particularly for plastics – highlight the limits of existing systems. For the industry, future success will depend on better aligning circularity, functionality and economic viability. Ultimately, the competitiveness of Europe’s packaging market will be measured by its ability to implement sustainable solutions that are scalable, affordable and industrially viable.

Author: Alexander Stark, Editor FACHPACK360°