The classic cardboard box is becoming obsolete, both ecologically and economically, according to a study by the German Logistics Association (BVL) and 4flow. Paper or plastic mailing bags cause up to 80 percent less CO₂ emissions. “The commonly used standard corrugated cardboard box performs worse due to its comparatively high material consumption. However, environmental impacts beyond pure CO₂ emissions must always be taken into account with plastic-based packaging,” according to the latest BVL/4flow study ‘Sustainable Packaging in E-Commerce’.
But that sounds easier than it is. Because if you want to save packaging material, you have to restructure your processes. According to the study, the empty space ratio (ESR) – i.e. the proportion of empty space in shipping cartons – averages 30 to 40 percent. For fashion items, it is 18 percent, but for glassware, it is 64 percent.
After all, the EU Packaging Regulation (PPWR) aims to limit the ESR to a maximum of 50 percent empty volume from 2030 onwards. This is forcing retailers to rethink their packaging processes – and in most cases to purchase new machinery. According to the study, automated 3D cutting systems that adapt cartons individually to the product size reduce packaging costs by up to 50 percent. However, a modern system costs a high to medium six-figure investment in euros (which may even rise to seven figures) – and only pays off with high throughput. “Automation solutions offer economic advantages in the packaging process for many types of products with high throughputs. When assessing the ecological benefits, the specific requirements of the retailer must be taken into account,” says Andreas Hennig, Director Fulfilment Marl at Thalia, in the BVL study. Smaller retailers are left out in the cold.
The path to sustainability is also rocky when it comes to the choice of materials. Lightweight paper or plastic bags containing recycled materials are supposed to save CO₂, but the purchase price is often 10 to 15 percent higher than conventional goods. Many suppliers are currently unable to guarantee consistent quality. And the PPWR is increasing the pressure: from 2030, all shipping packaging must be recyclable, and from 2035, penalties will be imposed for mixed materials. In Germany, around 90 percent of paper and 65 percent of plastic packaging is currently recycled – a good rate on paper. But the supply of recycled materials remains scarce because demand is exploding and plastic recycling in Germany is currently on the verge of collapse. So anyone who wants to make the switch in time needs long-term supply contracts, test series and certifications – all costs that no one sees until they appear on the balance sheet.
The verdict on reusable packaging is particularly harsh. According to the study, reusable boxes reach CO₂ break-even after just five cycles, and bags after seven. However, the concept remains economically unviable. Returning empty packaging eats into the cost advantage – not to mention the cleaning and handling costs. Reusable pioneers – such as RePack, Heycircle and Multiloop – are working on return systems via parcel shops and collection points. But as long as there is no comprehensive network, reusable packaging will remain a niche phenomenon.
“In many cases, switching to reusable packaging can already make ecological sense today. However, economic success requires a comprehensive return system and consumer acceptance – only then can return transport and logistics be organised efficiently,” says Daniela Bleimaier, Head of Public Affairs Germany & Regional Affairs at the German E-Commerce and Distance Selling Trade Association (bevh), in the study already cited. Retailers also face a psychological hurdle: if returns become too complicated, the return rate drops. And reusable packaging that remains with the customer is an ecological disaster.
The ideal scenario outlined in the study is shipping in the product packaging, i.e. without any additional transport packaging. The idea is appealing – no air, no cardboard, no filling material. However, the authors of the study estimate that this is only feasible for around 30 percent of products. Fashion, books, high-priced electronics and sensitive goods are excluded. There are also security and data protection aspects to consider: not everyone wants their neighbour to be able to see what has been delivered from the parcel. And even with suitable items, there is still a risk of transport damage – a return rate of 40 percent in the fashion segment speaks volumes. “Product manufacturers know best whether their packaging is already suitable for meeting protection requirements and customer expectations. A corresponding label 'Recommended for shipping in product packaging' would make it much easier to quickly and comprehensively eliminate unnecessary transport packaging,” emphasises Markus Mehrtens, Head of Logistics Sourcing & Partners at MediaMarktSaturn, in the recently published BVL study.
The example of the STI Group from Lauterbach in Hesse for Bosch Power Tools shows how differentiated e-commerce packaging can now be designed and implemented. The manufacturer is developing two packaging lines for its measuring devices – one for brick-and-mortar retailers and one specifically for online sales. While brilliant print images, product illustrations and a wealth of information are paramount in retail, robustness and logistical efficiency are the most important factors in e-commerce. The new shipping packaging is designed for SIOC (‘Ships in Own Container’) – it does not require any additional outer packaging. Bosch has dispensed with elements such as Euro hole hangers, which are helpful in retail logistics but hinder the shipping process. Instead of glossy varnish and high-gloss printing, a natural, sustainable design made of brown recycled material and reduced colour printing dominates. This not only saves material, but also signals environmental awareness – an aspect that is increasingly decisive for consumers when making purchasing decisions.
According to a study conducted by the STI Group in 2022, 99 percent of online shoppers value appropriate packaging. Oversized boxes with excessive filling material are particularly frowned upon. Half of those surveyed rated packaging as an indicator of a retailer's commitment to the environment. And optimisation is not only worthwhile for image reasons: oversized packaging causes higher transport costs and unnecessary storage requirements. “In e-commerce, packaging is no longer just a protective cover,” says the STI study. It is a means of communication, a signal of sustainability and a cost driver all at once. Retailers who have size, material and handling under control not only save CO₂, but also strengthen their brand image.
According to supply chain and logistics consultancy 4flow, five areas of investment are crucial to achieving the study's goals:
But here too, theory and practice diverge. “In terms of costs, the allocation between shipment content and packaging is also challenging. This is exacerbated by the rigid pricing structures of CEP service providers, which make it impossible to introduce variability similar to emissions. The strong focus on shipment weight and wide ranges between weight classes mean that packaging rarely makes a difference in practice,” the BVL/4flow study critically notes in this context. In other words, even if retailers save on materials, this often does not change the shipping price. And those who invest only save later – if at all. In total, investments in the mid six-figure range per location are incurred. The return on investment depends heavily on shipping volume and product portfolio.
It is therefore fitting that DHL Paket will increase its prices for business customers for national and international shipping on 1 January 2026. The adjustment will be made on an individual basis and is justified by increased personnel costs and investments in sustainable logistics. While retailers are expected to make their packaging processes more sustainable and efficient, transport costs are now rising at the same time. For retailers, this means that even with optimised packaging processes, transport and delivery remain the largest and increasingly expensive emission drivers in the system – and thus the actual cost lever for future efficiency gains.
The BVL/4flow study ‘Sustainable Packaging in E-Commerce’ advocates a holistic approach. This is because packaging accounts for only 10 to 30 percent of the total emissions of a shipment on average; transport dominates with around 70 percent. Regulations that only target cardboard boxes therefore fall short. Nevertheless, packaging remains the most visible symbol of sustainability in e-commerce. Retailers who invest in this area score points with customers – and are preparing themselves for the upcoming EU regulations. However, the BVL experts warn against blind activity. Ultimately, it is not so much the material that matters as the management: data quality, process discipline and willingness to invest. Those who digitise and automate their packaging strategy today will reduce costs, CO₂ emissions and reputational risks at the same time. Those who continue to fold cardboard as they did in 1999 will no longer be allowed to deliver in compliance with regulations by 2030 at the latest, according to the pointed conclusion. Sustainability in e-commerce is not a cardboard problem, but a system problem. Packaging, logistics and IT must work together – otherwise the green vision will remain piecemeal. The good news is that the technology is there. The bad news is that it costs money. And those who don't pay for it will end up paying twice – in emissions, in fees and in customer trust.
The challenges do not end at the loading bay. One thing is certain: the packaging industry is facing profound change. According to a recent analysis by Hamburg-based consulting firm Apenberg & Partner, the German market will experience increased consolidation in the coming years. Market studies conducted in connection with Fachpack 2025 predict an increase in mergers, acquisitions and plant closures, especially among small and medium-sized suppliers. Their margins and competitiveness will come under further pressure, driven by rising energy and personnel costs, increasing regulation and intensified price competition, as well as increased requirements from the entire e-commerce environment, among other things.
Apenberg expects structural change to accelerate, particularly in segments with declining demand or high investment requirements. Technologically leading or financially strong companies will extend their lead, while smaller manufacturers face very difficult times. Ultimately, the packaging issue – from shipping cartons to factory floors – is the yardstick for the future viability of an entire industry.
Author: Matthias Mahr, Lebensmittel Praxis
