PHA also offers high potential due to its barrier properties and biodegradability, but is currently too costly and too variable in quality—making it more relevant long-term, especially for applications where biodegradability provides a functional advantage. TPS, in turn, benefits from its low-cost raw-material base and good CO₂ footprint and shows potential for less demanding, short-lived applications, such as in the BioPrima project. However, TPS remains challenging due to moisture sensitivity and the need for barrier layers.
Overall, the potential of all bio-based plastics strongly depends on end-of-life handling, and their future market role will be shaped significantly by the PPWR, which will determine whether bio-based plastics receive regulatory recognition. Technical capability alone is insufficient; economic viability will be decisive.
Lieske also confirms the increasing diversity of materials: “No single material will dominate; instead, we will see application-specific diversification. PHA certainly has great potential for applications where biodegradability in natural environments (e.g. soil, marine) is crucial. But it is extremely cost-intensive.” For the established market of rigid packaging, PLA will remain important due to its high availability and transparency, while flexible and tougher blends based on PLA copolymers, PBS and TPS may gain importance for films and pouches.
Infrastructure Gap Remains the Biggest Hurdle
Both FNR and the Fraunhofer expert emphasize that material innovations are currently advancing faster than the development of suitable disposal and recycling systems. Lieske puts it clearly: “Many industrial composting facilities in Germany reject biodegradable plastics because they extend processing times and are perceived as contaminants. In other countries, such as Italy, the system works well.”
At the same time, separate collection systems for bioplastics such as PLA hardly exist, even though they would be technically feasible. “For recyclers, the low quantities in the material stream simply don’t justify them yet. A classic chicken-and-egg dilemma,” Lieske says.
The FNR confirms this view. In recycling, only bioplastics available as drop-in polymers (e.g. bio-based PE or PET) are compatible with existing recycling pathways without significant adjustments. For specialty bioplastics (e.g. PLA, PHA), theoretical mechanical or chemical recycling routes exist, but Europe currently lacks sufficient material volumes, separate sorting streams and standardized processes.
“Medium to long term, the expansion of chemical recycling processes could play an important role — but this will require investments in collection, sorting and recycling infrastructure,” the agency adds.
Market Scaling: Growth Yes – Broad Industrial Adoption Only in the Medium Term
Despite regulatory uncertainty, experts expect continued scaling. FNR anticipates a global market volume of more than five million tonnes of bioplastics within the next few years. Growth, however, will not be evenly distributed across all material classes: “Some bio-based plastics already have a more mature industrial base and can therefore scale more quickly, while others will grow more slowly due to technical or economic factors.”
At the same time, several challenges could slow market development: high investment costs for new plants, volatile prices of bio-based raw materials, insufficiently harmonized regulation in the EU, and the lack of specialized recycling structures for certain materials. Overall, the FNR expects bio-based plastics to significantly advance their industrial scaling over the next years and gain importance in the global plastics market – albeit with varying dynamics depending on the material.
This assessment is shared by Dr. Antje Lieske from Fraunhofer IAP, who expects short-term progress especially for drop-in polymers: “Further scaling will certainly take place. Bio-based drop-in polymers such as bio-PET or bio-PE will likely grow because they can be integrated seamlessly into existing production and recycling systems. PEF is also likely close to market introduction.” Production capacities for PLA, PBS and especially PHA will also expand significantly, according to Lieske, but widespread industrial use will continue to be slowed by high costs (PHA) and the unresolved disposal challenge (all). And how will the situation develop during the next five years? “True mass application beyond niche markets will therefore likely begin only toward the end of this period — or even later,” she concludes.
What becomes clear: scaling is coming — but it will be differentiated, material-specific and delayed. Bioplastics will gain importance in the coming years, but their industrial breakthrough will only occur once regulation, economic viability and end-of-life infrastructure evolve in parallel.
Author: Alexander Stark, FACHPACK360°
