VDMA Interview: Where Opportunities Are Emerging for Packaging Machinery Manufacturers

Ms Binzer, how would you assess the overall economic situation in Germany’s packaging machinery industry at mid-year 2026? What is the mood among companies?

At mid-year 2026, Germany’s packaging machinery industry remains fundamentally sound, although economic conditions have deteriorated noticeably. Following a very strong 2025, when production rose by 8.8 per cent to almost €9 billion and exports increased by 6.5 per cent, demand has lost momentum. From January to August 2026, overall order intake for packaging machinery was 7 per cent below the corresponding period a year earlier. Foreign orders were particularly weak, declining by 15 per cent.

Sentiment has improved slightly. According to the latest VDMA economic survey for the third quarter of 2026, 15 per cent of packaging machinery companies rate their situation as good or very good, 59 per cent as satisfactory and 26 per cent as poor. This represents a slight improvement compared with the second-quarter survey. Looking ahead, most companies surveyed expect conditions to remain unchanged over the next six months. The picture varies somewhat depending on the customer industry.

How is the international competitive position of German packaging machinery manufacturers developing? Alongside weaker demand, are companies also facing increasing price and competitive pressure?

German packaging machinery manufacturers remain very well positioned internationally. Export figures also reflect this: in the first half of 2026, exports totalled around €3.5 billion, an increase of 0.3 per cent, leaving them virtually unchanged at the previous year’s high level. However, performance varied considerably between regions. Growth in the EU, the rest of Europe, and Central and South Asia contrasted with declines in North America, China, Southeast Asia and Latin America, among other markets.

At the same time, price and competitive pressure are increasing significantly. Chinese suppliers in particular have caught up technologically, act faster and offer highly competitive prices in many markets. German manufacturers cannot win this competition on price alone. Their strengths lie in technologically sophisticated, flexible and efficient solutions, high quality and reliability, and worldwide service. The key will be to build on these strengths, bring innovations to market faster and, at the same time, limit the disadvantages associated with costs and operating conditions in Europe. Their competitive position remains strong, but it cannot be taken for granted.

Which markets could stimulate a recovery over the next twelve to 18 months? Are any regions currently sending particularly positive signals?

There is currently no sign of a broad recovery across all regions. We see positive signals primarily in Europe, Central and South Asia, and South America. North America, Africa and the Middle East also offer potential, as investment in modern production and packaging capacity continues in these regions. However, the latest VDMA economic survey confirms that developments continue to vary considerably by region and customer industry: while individual markets and projects are providing impetus, companies in other regions remain cautious about investment decisions. Over the next twelve to 18 months, we therefore expect a gradual recovery rather than a strong, widespread upturn. Much will depend on whether geopolitical uncertainty eases, financing and economic conditions become more predictable, and postponed investments are approved.

Which factors are currently weighing most heavily on demand? How would you assess the relative importance of economic weakness, geopolitical uncertainty, trade disputes, financing costs and regulatory conditions?

The greatest burden at present is the combination of weak orders and high uncertainty. Many customers have an underlying need to invest but are postponing decisions because sales prospects, geopolitical conflicts and trade policy conditions are difficult to assess. The VDMA economic survey confirms this picture for packaging machinery manufacturers: the main market risks identified are subdued demand, geopolitical disruption and trade disputes, increasing price and competitive pressure – particularly from China – as well as high operating costs and regulatory uncertainty. Companies regard the technological competitive landscape as both a major opportunity and a major risk. There are, however, clear opportunities: automation and digitalisation, demand for more efficient and flexible machinery, and sustainable, resource-efficient packaging solutions that comply with the PPWR are opening up new business opportunities.

What developments do you expect in the second half of 2026 and in 2027?

For the second half of 2026 and for 2027, we expect gradual stabilisation rather than a rapid, widespread upturn. The VDMA economic survey shows that most packaging machinery manufacturers expect conditions to remain largely unchanged in the short term. Sentiment is therefore not euphoric, but it is more stable and somewhat more optimistic than it was at mid-year. Investment needs remain subdued in many customer industries, and the ability to plan ahead remains limited.