The packaging and recycling markets in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are closely interconnected and follow a shared development path: more circularity, stronger extended producer responsibility and the expansion of collection systems. In all three countries, the regulatory frameworks for packaging waste management are now closely aligned with EU law. Another common feature of the Baltic states is that they have already introduced deposit-return systems for beverage packaging – Estonia in 2005, Lithuania in 2016 and Latvia in 2022. Per-capita packaging waste generation in all three countries remains below the EU-27 average of 186.5 kg per inhabitant in 2022.
Among the Baltic states, Estonia is one of the more advanced countries in packaging recycling. According to the European Environment Agency, packaging waste generation in 2022 stood at around 143 kg per capita, well below the EU average of 186.5 kg per inhabitant. At the same time, Estonia achieved an overall recovery rate that already exceeds the 2025 target. The European Environment Agency explicitly notes that the country has already surpassed the 65% target for packaging waste recycling applicable for 2025, making it one of the few EU member states that are ahead of the required trajectory in packaging recycling. According to the EEA, this development is also supported by the long-established deposit-return system for beverage packaging.
This regulatory direction remains the most important driver going forward. A report by the German-Baltic Chamber of Commerce(AHK) outlines a clear reform path for Estonia, with stronger separate collection, extended producer obligations, a planned reform of the packaging tax and the goal of making packaging more resource-efficient and easier to recycle. Improved direct collection of packaging waste at the point of generation and better digital waste data are also expected to further strengthen the circular economy.
The volume of the packaging services sector is estimated at around EUR 44 million in 2026. Paper, cardboard and plastics carry particular weight in the overall balance of packaging materials. Estonia’s paper and paper products industry, which covers a significant share of cardboard and paper packaging, is expected to reach an industry volume of just over EUR 240 million in 2026.
Latvia has made noticeable progress in handling packaging waste in recent years, but the country profile of the European Environment Agency also shows that packaging waste generation per inhabitant continues to rise. The volume nevertheless remains below the EU average and therefore at a moderate level by European standards. Total municipal waste generation in 2022 also stood below the EU-27 average, at around 464 kg of municipal waste per capita compared with 513 kg. This points to an overall lower waste generation level and, by extension, also lower packaging waste volumes. At the same time, the overall recovery rate has improved. This development is driven primarily by paper, cardboard, wood and glass, which are the dominant packaging waste streams. Plastic packaging has also shown progress over time, although without any major additional boost recently. Separate collection of steel and aluminium also indicates the areas where further improvements are still possible.
For the packaging industry, the political framework is particularly important. According to the AHK/RETech report, Latvia is continuing to expand its separate collection systems and the necessary infrastructure, while explicitly embedding circular measures in the field of packaging waste as well. In addition, the still relatively new deposit-return system for beverage packaging is already making a visible contribution to reducing littering, according to the report. Packaging policy in Latvia is therefore no longer defined solely by recycling rates, but increasingly also by producer responsibility, collection logistics and cleanliness in public spaces.
Lithuania presents a mixed picture in terms of packaging waste. Eurostat reports per-capita packaging waste volumes for Lithuania that are below the EU average of 186.5 kg per inhabitant. This points to comparatively low packaging waste generation in an EU context. However, the overall recovery rate has developed only slowly for years. According to the European Environment Agency, the recycling rates of the individual material fractions fluctuate considerably, without showing a clear upward trend. Overall performance is driven mainly by paper and cardboard packaging, while the structural weaknesses of the system are more apparent in plastics and glass.
However, the basic regulatory framework is not the issue: producer responsibility for packaging is firmly established, and national strategies are clearly aligned with the waste hierarchy, collection systems and the expansion of treatment capacities.
On the market side, potential is particularly evident in the plastics segment. Revenues from plastic packaging in Lithuania are expected to rise to just under EUR 640 million by 2026, making the country one of the more significant plastic packaging markets in Central and Eastern Europe. At the same time, imports of plastic packaging are projected to increase to just under USD 140 million by 2026, underlining Lithuania’s role as an import market for packaging solutions in the region.
However, the AHK/RETech report also points to key obstacles to the circular economy, including low demand for recyclates, limited recycling infrastructure, high incineration rates and a still small market for sustainable products. For the packaging industry, this means that the political framework is in place, but the transition from regulation to a viable circular system for packaging materials remains an operational challenge.
Author: Alexander Stark, Editor FACHPACK360°
