According to data from Statista, the industry generated sales of around €30.5 billion in 2024. This result was significantly higher than the figure for 2014 (€24.5 billion). However, after a phase of strong growth until 2022, a downward trend set in. According to forecasts by Apenberg & Partner, sales are expected to fall to €27.4 billion in 2025 and continue to decline to around €26 billion by 2026. This results in an average annual growth rate (CAGR) of around –5 per cent for the period from 2023 to 2026.
The majority of sales were generated domestically. In 2024, the industry generated around €19.98 billion within Germany. Foreign sales amounted to €10.5 billion. The figures illustrate that the packaging industry continues to be strongly focused on the domestic market, but at the same time also plays a relevant role in exports.
In addition to its economic indicators, the industry is also an important employer. Around 119,600 people were employed in the German packaging industry in 2024. This makes the sector a key pillar of industrial employment in Germany.
A look at the sales structure shows that two material groups dominate the market. With a share of around 44 percent of total sales, paper packaging was at the top of the list in 2024. Plastic packaging followed with around 36 percent, while glass contributed around 10 percent and metal just under 8 percent to the packaging industry's total sales.
This distribution is also reflected in the operating structure. The majority of companies focus on the manufacture of paper, cardboard and plastic packaging. In 2024, 295 companies in Germany specialised in corrugated cardboard and cardboard packaging, while 255 companies produced plastic packaging. In comparison, the number of companies in the glass (49) and metal (44) sectors was significantly lower.
As with the German economy as a whole, the packaging industry is not immune to economic developments and uncertainties. Market analysts at Apenberg & Partner expect average sales to decline by around five per cent per year until 2026. However, the trend is by no means uniform – there are significant differences between material groups and product segments.
The paper, cardboard and carton sector in particular, especially corrugated cardboard, is suffering from the cyclical demand for transport packaging and is expected to shrink by around seven per cent annually until 2026. Paper labels, on the other hand, are comparatively stable, with a much more moderate decline of 1.8 percent per year.
The picture in the plastics segment is mixed. Bags and sacks are coming under massive pressure due to regulatory restrictions and are expected to lose around 12.5 percent per year. At the same time, there are sub-markets with growth potential: according to forecasts, plastic closures will grow by five per cent annually, while bottles/flasks and large containers will grow by two percent.
Glass packaging will also experience a downward trend after a brief upturn in 2023 due to high energy prices. Bottles will be hardest hit, with an expected decline of 16 percent per year, while preserving jars and similar products will decline less sharply, at 7.2 percent.
Finally, the metal packaging sector is expected to shrink by an average of 4.5 percent per year until 2026. All sub-segments will be affected equally – aluminium as well as tinplate products and closures.
Although packaging is indispensable, it causes considerable waste and sustainability problems. This makes recycling and environmentally friendly solutions all the more important. In 2022, every German citizen consumed an average of 226.9 kilograms of packaging material.
According to the Federal Environment Agency, the amount of commercially collected sales, transport and outer packaging amounted to 4.15 million tonnes. Paper, cardboard and carton accounted for the largest share, at around 64 percent or 2.67 million tonnes. The proportion of wood (10.1 percent), plastic (8.7 percent) and other materials (8.8 percent) was significantly lower. Glass and metals played a minor role. In addition, just under 117,000 tonnes of reusable packaging were sorted out.
The recycling rate for all packaging was 68.5 per cent in 2022, slightly above the previous year's figure (+0.6 percentage points). Improvements were particularly evident in paper, plastics, aluminium and tinplate, while wood and glass packaging recorded declines. According to figures from the Zentrale Stelle Verpackungsregister (Central Agency Packaging Register), the material recycling rate for plastic packaging has risen significantly since 2018, from 42.1 to 68.9 percent. However, glass and beverage cartons, for which the statutory quotas were not met, as well as composite packaging, which is technically difficult to recycle, continue to cause problems for the dual systems.
According to the Central Agency, the biggest challenges include incorrect pre-sorting and incorrect waste separation by consumers. Incorrect disposal reduces the quality of the collected mixture, increases the sorting effort, drives up costs and reduces the amount of material that can be used for high-quality recycling.
The positive finding of the latest survey by the Federal Environment Agency is a high recycling rate even beyond the dual systems. According to reports from the companies surveyed that collect waste from sales, transport and outer packaging, the recycled quantities for glass, paper, cardboard and all types of metals range between 98.0 percent and 99.8 percent of the total quantities collected. For plastics (85.8 percent) and wood (70.5 percent), the recycling rate is significantly lower in some cases, as is the case for other materials (55.9 percent). Apart from metals, the largest quantities – over 95 percent – are mainly sent for recycling in Germany. However, where recycling is not possible or reasonable, energy recovery takes precedence over other recovery measures.
Overall, the recycling balance remains mixed: while recycling rates for some materials have increased, others remain well below the targets. The upcoming EU Packaging Regulation is likely to further increase pressure on industry and consumers in the future.
Author: Alexander Stark
